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Thursday 27 September 2012

In resignation, Ajit Pawar's gamble for the big league

Mumbai: A simmering rift over succession in the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) now threatens to split the party. It's a face-off between a young and ambitious nephew Ajit Pawar versus the party patriarch and veteran politician Sharad Pawar.

The evidence is in the escalation of the political drama being played out after Ajit Pawar's resignation.

Just minutes after Ajit Pawar stepped down as Maharashtra's deputy chief minister over allegations of corruption in the 72,000 crore irrigation scam, party chief Sharad Pawar said, "No one else will resign and democratic front government in the state won't be destabilized."

But within hours, 19 NCP legislators sent their resignations to the state party chief, in support of Ajit Pawar, catching the coalition partner Congress off guard.

On Wednesday, party leader Praful Patel tried to downplay the crisis and said that "no meeting of NCP MLAs will be held since a senior leader has passed away."

But in Mumbai the NCP had a legislative party meet at the Vidhan Bhavan. Ajit Pawar drove into the building amidst massive cheer from his supporters. At the meeting, the NCP leaders urged Mr Pawar to reconsider his resignation and even passed a resolution to the effect.

Earlier in the day, 13 Independents - who support the NCP - said they would reconsider their decision unless Ajit Pawar remained deputy chief minister.  All this indicating a growing support within and outside the party for the young turk, who has his eyes set on Maharashtra assembly elections in 2014. It is seen as one of the biggest reasons why the junior Pawar decided to gamble away his position as the second most important person in the state govt.

That Ajit Pawar is ambitious is well known among political circles. Rahul Narvekar, the spokesperson of Shiv Sena's youth wing, says, "It's no secret he wants to be the chief minister. He has made his political ambitions very clear."

To realize this ambition Ajit Pawar knows that the NCP needs to fight elections on more seats. But with Congress as the dominant ally, it has not been able to do so in the 15 years they have been in the coalition.
 
Political insiders say Ajit Pawar thinks this is the only logical way for the party to grow, and he has the support amongst many of the younger MLA's within the NCP.

But Sharad Pawar is reluctant to break off the coalition that has served the NCP so well by keeping it in power in the state for the last decade and a half. This has been the cause for friction between the uncle and the nephew. 

Ajit Pawar had insisted that he be made the deputy chief minister if he could not be the chief minister. In fact, immediately after 2009 state elections it was reported that he had sulked for days at not being made the deputy chief minister. 

Then in 2010 he prevailed upon his uncle to remove Chaggan Bhujbal and lodged himself instead. At that time too, there were clear signs of support for him. 50 out of the 60 odd NCP legislators voted for him over Sharad Pawar-loyalist Chaggan Bhujbal.

Long considered as Sharad Pawar's political heir, he feared of getting sidelined by the rise of the party chief's daughter Supriya Sule. However Ms Sule made her preference clear. When asked in Nasik whether she would consider going to state politics if given a chance, she said, "No. I work at the Centre. I work in Delhi."

Ajit Pawar's muscle-flexing, many say, may be part of a pre-scripted NCP game-plan to keep the Congress guessing. But it has also shown the top leadership of NCP itself, that Ajit Pawar is a power centre in his own right and ready for the big leap. It's now upto Sharad Pawar, the master strategist, to ensure that the NCP does not go the Shiv Sena way, and that his nephew's political ambitions don't split his party right down the middle. 

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